hurricane polo, mexico – Late september 2026
Hurricane Polo underwent rapid intensification in the Eastern Pacific in late September 2026, reaching near Category 5-equivalent intensity, with GDACS’s NOAA-sourced model estimating sustained winds of up to 287 km/h. The storm tracked northwestward toward the Baja California Peninsula, weakening to Category 3 strength (125 mph sustained winds) as it approached the coast, with landfall expected on the peninsula’s Pacific-facing coast. Forecasts indicated the potential for significant storm surge, extreme rainfall, dangerous surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. GDACS estimated approximately 130,000 people within Category 1-or-higher impact zones and classified Mexico’s humanitarian vulnerability as medium. The worst-exposed areas include Baja California Sur, with potential regional exposure for heritage sites including the historic centre of La Paz, the Jesuit missions of Loreto and San Javier, and the Rock Paintings of the Sierra de San Francisco. As the exact landfall municipality remained uncertain, impacts on these heritage sites should be considered at a regional rather than site-specific level.
MEXICO · BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR · SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TROPICAL CYCLONE
CATEGORY 3
Heritage Sites within the AOI
This map displays Hurricane Polo’s track and the modelled wind-intensity zones surrounding it, based on NOAA/GDACS advisories, together with the distribution of cultural heritage sites across the wider region, compiled from UNESCO World Heritage listings and OpenStreetMap contributions.
Heritage Sites and Cyclone Track
Unesco Heritage Sites
Cultural Sites
Hurricane Path
Heritage Sites by Distance from Hurricane Track
These two maps display cultural heritage sites classified according to their distance from Hurricane Polo’s projected track, from closest to furthest. The first map uses UNESCO heritage site data, while the second uses OpenStreetMap (OSM) heritage data, providing a broader representation of potentially exposed cultural sites.
Distances were calculated in QGIS using the Distance to Hub analysis, measuring the shortest distance between each heritage site and the hurricane track. The results provide a relative indication of each site’s proximity to the storm’s projected path.
UNESCO World Heritage Sites (visible in viewport)
| Distance | Number of sites |
|---|---|
| 77–325 km | 14 |
| 325–770 km | 128 |
| 770–1,151 km | 29 |
| 1,151–1,793 km | 23 |
| 1,793–2,618 km | 17 |
Heritage Sites from OpenStreetMap
| Distance | Number of sites |
|---|---|
| 23–410 km | 12359 |
| 410–617 km | 8159 |
| 617–856 km | 2989 |
| 856–1,216 km | 1966 |
| 1,216–1,712 km | 1202 |
Higher risk
High risk
Medium risk
Moderate risk
Lower risk
Heritage Sites Potentially Exposed
This map isolates the cultural heritage sites located within Hurricane Polo’s modelled wind-intensity footprint, based on overlay analysis between the NOAA/GDACS wind-field polygons and standardised heritage point data. Sites falling outside the modelled wind-intensity bands are excluded from this view.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Total potentially exposed UNESCO heritage sites | 7 |
| Total potentially exposed cultural sites | 467 |
UNESCO Heritage Sites
Cultural Sites from OpenStreetMap
Imagery Footprint Supporting Post-Earthquake
Heritage Monitoring
This map zooms in on the priority heritage sites identified along Hurricane Polo’s projected path and displays the footprints of available high-resolution satellite imagery (Maxar, Planet, and Sentinel) over each site, filtered by Ground Sampling Distance (GSD ≤ 0.5 m) to ensure suitability for damage assessment. The imagery footprints are overlaid on the modelled wind-intensity field. Hovering over a footprint provides information on the provider, price, resolution, cloud cover, and acquisition date. Optical imagery may be constrained by cloud cover in the days immediately following the hurricane, while Sentinel-1 SAR data can provide earlier cloud-penetrating coverage for flood and large-scale change detection.
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